Poor Harvests May Worsen Global Food Shortages

 Universal Tractor "We're certainly not going to have as good a crop as we hadhoped," said Harvey Howington of the Arkansas Rice GrowersAssociation. "I don't think this is good news foranybody."Harvests ebb and flow, of course. But with supplies of most of thekey commodities at their lowest levels in decades, there is littleroom for error this year. American farmers are among the world'stop producers, supplying 60 percent of the corn that moves acrossinternational borders in a typical year, as well as a third of thesoybeans, a quarter of the wheat and a tenth of the rice."If we have bad crops, it's going to be a wild ride,"said the Agriculture Department's chief economist, Joseph Glauber."There's just no cushion."As every farmer knows, trouble can come at any point before theharvest is complete. Danny and Karen Smith get up in the middle ofthe night at their wheat farm in Milton, Kansas, whenever they hearthunder.In a few weeks, the wheat they planted last fall will be ripe. Abad storm or, worse, a tornado could destroy it. Last year, theSmiths lost nearly all their wheat to a late freeze compounded bytoo much rain.This year, the weather has been perfect: cool and moist. "Seehow plump these berries are?" Smith said, standing in themiddle of one of his golden fields. "This will feed a lot ofpeople."The world wheat harvest is forecast to rise more than 8 percentthis year, thanks to better weather and more acreage undercultivation. But even this bright spot is tentative. Australia wasexpected to emerge from a two-year drought, but that prediction islooking somewhat doubtful.With the exception of southwestern Australia and a small corner ofsoutheastern Australia, little rain has fallen in recent months.Many wheat farmers have been unable to plant at all, said BobIffla, the chairman of the Wheat Growers Association in Australia.As a result, the Australian harvest is likely to be below average:5 million to 15 million tons of wheat available for export,compared with 17 million or 18 million tons in an average year."It just depends on the rains; it's still not too late,"Iffla said.In the American corn belt, the issue has been getting the rain tostop. After heavy rains and flooding last weekend, the price ofcorn on the commodity markets rose Monday to a record $6.57 abushel."We can't snap our fingers and make high yields," saidEmerson Nafziger, a professor of agronomic extension at theUniversity of Illinois. "We still depend on the weather."A universal saying among farmers is that high prices never last,because they encourage production that fills the demand and drivesdown the prices. The current crisis is testing that theory. Withcosts soaring for fertilizer and diesel, the expenses of farmingare so high that the urge to plant more is battling, in someplaces, the temptation to plant nothing.Prajoub Suksapsri in Ayutthaya, Thailand, is among the farmersgoing all-out this year. For the first time in two decades offarming, Prajoub is preparing to plant a second crop of rice on hisland, which usually does not have irrigation.He and his neighbors have risked their savings to set up a systemto pump water into their fields. If rice prices stay high, Prajoubcould make the biggest profit he has seen in years from his one-hectare farm. But if prices fall, he could face heavy losses."Sometimes I lie awake at night, worrying about it," hesaid, watching his new Honda generator chug steadily, running thepumps. The landlord of the fields that he rents is charging himmore than triple the usual amount just for the right to plant anextra harvest. "He is sucking my blood," Prajoub said.Helen Gabriel's farm in south-central Luzon Island in thePhilippines also measures one hectare and lacks irrigation. Facedwith soaring costs for diesel, fertilizer, rice seed andinsecticide, she has made a different decision from Prajoub."We will have no crop this year," Gabriel said as shewaited in a three-hour line for the right to buy two kilograms, or4.4. pounds, of government-subsidized rice.World stockpiles of rice are likely to shrink slightly this year,excluding Chinese food security reserves that are not available forworld trade, after already dwindling markedly in six of the lasteight years, said Concepcion Calpe, a Food and AgricultureOrganization rice specialist in Rome.That estimate does not take into account the turmoil in Arkansas.Last year, the rice crop in Arkansas yielded a record 160 bushelsan acre. This year, experts there say, 150 bushels will be anachievement."There's no doubt about it; we're not going to have the riceto export," said Carl Frein of Farmers Marketing Service inBrinkley, Arkansas. "Poor countries like Haiti, I don't knowwhat they're going to do."For all the apprehension this year, the growing season is stillyoung, with plenty of time for the situation to improve - or forcrops to fail."I've seen mediocre starts get a bit better, and mediocrestarts get a whole lot worse," said Nelson, the grainsanalyst.Kron, the Indiana farmer, gave up on corn last week after managingto plant - and in some cases replant - only about half of his 1,200acres.Last year, his corn yielded 150 bushels an acre. This year, becauseof the late start, he will be happy to get 130 bushels."I don't know if this is the worst year we've ever had, butit's moving up the list pretty quick," the farmer said."It's kind of testing everybody, I believe."